Mortgage Rate Update February 17, 2011

Although the best mortgage rates are unchanged this morning the closing costs required to obtain these rates are lower which means pricing has improved.

Despite economic data that would ordinarily pressure rates higher we are seeing pricing on rates improve.  Why?  A flight-to-safety trade is underway in response to growing unrest in other Middle East & North African Countries (Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, and more).  Potentially the toppling of power in Egypt could be the tip of the iceberg.

Not Flight of the Conchords

What is a flight-to-safety and how does it help mortgage rates here in the US?  CLICK HERE to learn more.

Not that the markets are paying any attention but this morning’s Consumer Price Index report showed growing price pressure for food & energy at the retail level of the economy.

According to this morning’s report inflationary pressure for consumers is not as hot as for manufacturers as shown in yesterday’s Producer Price Index.  This makes sense if you think about it.  During he Great Recession firms laid off workers and got much more efficient & productive.  As consumer demand rebounds their cost structures remain low which means they can absorb most of the inflation and remain profitable.  However, at some point they will begin rehiring workers (hopefully soon) which will raise costs and likely put more pressure on the CPI.

Inflation is the primary driver of mortgage rates so we’ll have to keep an eye out.

Current outlook: neutral

Mortgage Rate Update February 16, 2011

Mortgage rates are unchanged again this morning.

Inflationary pressure at the wholesale & manufacturing level of our economy hit a 2-year high according to this morning’s Producer Price Index.  As we blogged about yesterday price pressure around the globe is rising and the question is how severely it will hit consumers here in the US.  Inflation is the primary driver of mortgage rates so this morning’s report may pressure rates higher.

Other economic data revealed mixed results today.  According to the Commerce Department housing starts increased by more than expected last month but housing permits (a sign of future construction activity) dropped.

Industrial production & capacity utilization grew by a slower clip than was expected in January but December’s previously released figures were revised higher.

Overall, the interest rate markets are concerned about inflation.  We switched to a locking position yesterday and will maintain that stance today.

Current outlook: locking bias